Great Filters: the Limits of Future Life

The concept of the Great Filter was introduced by Robin Hanson. According to it, the Fermi-paradox can be explained by the existence of a barrier that usually prevents the dead matter to become living and/or intelligent and albeit we were able to overcome it, the other candidates for either life or thinking wasn’t lucky/smart enough to get over it. In short: there are some factors that work against the living/intelligent beings.
Of course, it is only a theory and there are other, possible explanations for the “Great Silence” (=our missing “companion intelligences” in the Universe). For example: a low probability of life; or our inability to detect their signs; or we are the first intelligent races so it is not a surprise not to observe other intelligences in our light cone.
But we could adapt this Great Filter hypothesis for the future. Fred C. Adams (Long-term astrophysical processes, in: Global Catastrophic Risks, 2008) draws up our Universe’s very distant future up to 10^100 ears and regarding the survival of life, there are some fundamental turning points in the distant future of the Universe.
The first one is about the survuval of the earthly life. Our planet will be uninhabitable for an intelligent being within a 0.9 – 1.5 billion year and the biosphere will be “essentially sterilized in about 5.5 billion years” by the Sun. Notice that our environment in the Planetary System is not too life-friendly: a smaller start with 10% mass of the Sun would shine for trillion years (p. 44–46.). Regarding our actual knowledge about the pace of our human races’ technological developments, it seems to be possible to circumvent these problems–e.g. by migrating to another star.
The second barrier is more problematic. About 10^40 years later, because of the proton decay the matter in its traditional form will disappear and it means the “life as we know it”. (p. 47.)
It seems to be a serious “Great Filter” regarding the future of life and it would be a real challenge to find a solution which would be able to guarantee the survival of the life in this radically different physical environment. Of course, 10^40 year seem to be an unimaginably long time–but notice that it is not the end of the history of our Universe. The remains of the earlier era: the last black holes will be evaporated within a 10^100 years and only after it begins that epoch when “predictions of the physical universe begin to lose focus”. (p. 49.)
In other worlds: the living period (its end will be caused by the baryon decay) is like a phenomenon disappearing after the first trillionth – trillionth – trillionth… second of the Big Bang.  A 10^40 years are simply negligible to the remaining period of time.
So it isn’t evident to argue that the “aim” of our whole Universe is that momentary phenomenon of life. However, the final conclusion of the Strong Anthropic Principle is that the appearance of life is a necessity. But why not, for example, the black holes?
So we have two choices. We can either refuse the Strong Anthropic Principle as a ridiculous and flawed theory (and I tend to do it) or we can ask how it would be possible for the future life to survive these two Great Filters: the baryon and the black hole barriers–and it is a really exciting question.

Complexity and alien intelligence

From a complexity approach there are some different kind of “intelligence” and they have two components: individual building blocks (ants, neurons, humans etc.) and their societies (ant hill, brain, human society etc.). These components can be either simple or complex.
In short: in search for alien intelligence, we have to take into consideration not only the complexity of an individual agent, but its societal environment, as well. Incidentally, it raises the question whether a traditional, “lonely” computer could produce a kind of intelligence similar to ours, since all intelligent form known by us is embedded into a societal networks, bit it isn't.
Regarding the possible combinations, it is a self-contradiction a complex system with simple building blocks and similarly simple society, so we have to ignore it.
The second possibility is represented by ants. They aren’t intelligent individually, but their societies can show complex and adaptive behaviors.
The third category is the human-like complexity: we are complex individuals who live in a complex society.
Theoretically it seems to be possible a fourth solution: it would be a huge, complex and adaptive being. A similar entity appears in Stanislaw Lem’s novel Solaris (where the whole planet sems to be intelligent) without any societal environment.
This taxonomy raises some questions.
First of all, it is a cliché that how intelligent an ant colony, although a sole ant isn’t. They can build anthills with regulated temperature, defend their descendants etc. It is a central problem of complexity science that there is no an exact measurement for complexity (Melanie Michell: a Guided Tour to complexity, p 95), but is seems to be unquestionable that there is no ant-like intelligence with consciousness on our planet. They can monitor their environment but from this point of view they are on the level of cockroaches. They never reached the second level: the self-reflexivity or reflective self-awareness: to know that you know. (Clayton: Emergence and Mind 110)
Since there are more insect races and individual insects than mammals, they would have more opportunity to evolve into an intelligent system than mammals. Ergo it is a plausible hypothesis that a mammal-level intelligence (=intelligent agents, complex society) unreachable by ant colonies (=simple individuals, complex society). And not only their intelligence, but their ability for environment modification is limited, as well. They can build ant hills, but cannot able to build spaceships. In other words: ant like system cannot reach the level of consciousness and consciousness is the only way to develop really effective technologies. Opposite to some SF writers’ ant like, intelligent technological societies, an alien intelligence presumably would similar to us in the sense that they would be individually complex entities. After all, technology reachable only if you are both a complex entity and are supported by a complex society–it is not a surprise that computing is not a Paleolithic invention.
Following this train of thought, it seems to be probable that there are no Solaris like mega brains, since they wouldn’t have complex societies. But who knows–perhaps their mega complexity can substitute a complex society’s influence.
Or not.